With the scratch of the formidable #7 Colloquial, the complexion of the Grade 1 Woody Stephens Stakes has shifted, but the intrigue remains just as high. A deep and talented field of three-year-old sprinters will still clash over seven furlongs at Saratoga.
The spotlight continues shining brightly on Chancer McPatrick, who boasts a Grade 1 victory over this track and distance and now stands as the clear horse to beat. Trained by Chad Brown, the 4-1 morning line favorite looks to capitalize on the scratch of a key rival.
Standing in his way is a formidable group, including the Bob Baffert-trained Citizen Bull, a multiple Grade 1 winner as a two-year-old who looks to regain his championship form after a disappointing run in the Kentucky Derby.
Also commanding respect is Patch Adams, from the powerful Brad Cox stable, who shortens up in distance after a sharp allowance victory. With a purse of $500,000 on the line, the stage is set for a memorable showdown.
The Field
1. Big Truzz (10-1): This colt is the most lightly raced horse in the field, making his third career start. He broke his maiden impressively and then finished a game second to Patch Adams in a tough allowance race at Churchill Downs.
The jump into Grade 1 company is a significant challenge, but the analysis of his past performances suggests he has immense upside and is looking for this exact seven-furlong distance. His recent workouts have been sharp, and at a price, he could be a live player for at least a share.
2. Madaket Road (10-1): Trainer Bob Baffert sends out this well-traveled colt, who showed grit finishing second in the Pat Day Mile G2 in his last start. He now cuts back to seven furlongs, a distance at which he was a good second in the Grade 3 Bob Hope to close out his juvenile campaign.
Adding blinkers for the first time could spark improvement, as his barn hits at a 30% clip with this equipment change. His form is solid, and he possesses the class to compete.
3. Macho Music (8-1): This colt enters off a career-best performance, winning the Grade 2 Pat Day Mile where he defeated Madaket Road at nearly 14-1 odds.
That victory marked his third consecutive race with a new Beyer Speed Figure top, indicating a peak-form horse. He handled a sloppy track with ease last time and has proven himself at this distance. His good speed makes him a pace factor.
4. Patch Adams (5-1): A homebred for WinStar Farm, this colt from the Brad Cox barn returns to sprinting, a move that appears to suit him perfectly. He exits a sharp victory over fellow entrant Big Truzz at Churchill Downs, a race where he displayed a determined drive to the wire.
His two career wins have come at sprint distances, including a maiden victory at this seven-furlong trip. While he loses jockey Flavien Prat, he picks up the capable Luis Saez and figures to be a major player with a stalking trip.
5. Citizen Bull (5-1): The most accomplished horse in the field, this colt was a champion at two, winning the Grade 1 American Pharoah and the Grade 1 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile. His three-year-old campaign has been less stellar, culminating in a 15th-place finish in the Kentucky Derby.
Trainer Bob Baffert takes the blinkers off and cuts him back to one turn, which could trigger a return to his brilliant best. If he can recapture his prior form, the rest of the field will run for a second.
6. T Kraft (30-1): This Bill Mott trainee is a longshot but is riding a three-race winning streak, with each victory earning a higher Beyer Speed Figure than the last. He now takes a massive leap in class, but his conditioner is known for placing his horses where they can succeed.
He has run well at Saratoga before, finishing second in his career debut at the track. He would need a significant step forward, but at 30-1, he could be an interesting horse to include in exotic wagers.
8. Gunmetal (8-1) The second of two Brad Cox trainees, this son of Gun Runner enters off a victory in a Keeneland allowance race. He gets his fourth different jockey in as many starts, which is a slight concern.
His lone poor effort came at this seven-furlong distance in the Grade 3 Swale Stakes, where he ran without the anti-bleeding medication Lasix, which is not permitted here either. The Cox barn is potent in graded stakes, but there are some questions for him to answer.
9. Neoequos (10-1) This Florida-bred colt also exits the Kentucky Derby, where he was outrun after being part of the early pace. He previously finished a respectable third in the Grade 1 Florida Derby.
His lone attempt at seven furlongs resulted in a second-place finish in a stakes race, suggesting this cutback in distance could be to his liking. He has tactical speed and is in the capable hands of trainer Saffie Joseph Jr., making him a potential threat if he can settle just off the leaders.
10. Chancer McPatrick (4-1) The morning-line favorite is a Grade 1 winner over this course and distance, having captured the Hopeful Stakes here last summer. Trainer Chad Brown removes the blinkers, yielding a 26% success rate for the barn.
After testing the Kentucky Derby trail, he shortens to his best distance from a favorable outside post position. Everything seems to be lining up for a peak performance.
11. Gate to Wire (12-1) This colt is already a graded stakes winner at seven furlongs, having taken the Grade 3 Swale Stakes earlier this year, defeating Macho Music and Gunmetal. Trained by Todd Pletcher, he had a difficult start in his most recent race at Churchill Downs but still managed to run competitively.
He possesses an off-the-pace running style that should be aided by the outside draw. With solid local works, he is a threat to outperform his odds.
Win, Place, Show, Wildcard, and Longshot
Win: (10) Chancer McPatrick (4-1) – A Grade 1 winner at this track and distance, he is cutting back to his best trip and gets a key equipment change with the blinkers coming off. The outside post is ideal, and he looks primed for a top effort from the powerful Chad Brown stable.
Place: (4) Patch Adams (5-1) – He is another horse who seems to be doing what he does best by sprinting. His last win was professional, and he has already proven he can handle seven furlongs. He should be in a great stalking position to grab a major share of the purse.
Show: (3) Macho Music (8-1) – He enters in career-best form having won the Grade 2 Pat Day Mile and posted three straight Beyer tops. His tactical speed is an asset, and he looks to continue his upward trajectory.
Wildcard: (5) Citizen Bull (5-1) – He is the class of the field, but his current form is a mystery. If the cutback in distance and the removal of blinkers rekindles the fire he showed as a two-year-old champion, he is talented enough to dominate this race.
Longshot: (11) Gate to Wire (12-1) – At double-digit odds, this Todd Pletcher trainee is a proven graded stakes winner at this distance. He had a valid excuse in his last start and could rebound with a big effort from a favorable outside post.
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