A compelling rivalry that has defined the three-year-old season will write its next chapter at Saratoga on Saturday, as Kentucky Derby champion Sovereignty and Preakness Stakes victor Journalism meet in a highly anticipated edition of the $2 million Grade 1 Belmont Stakes.
While the two standouts are expected to garner the most attention, a deep and talented field is set to challenge them in the 1 1/4-mile “Test of the Champion.”
Sovereignty, the 2-1 second choice on the morning line, captured the imagination of the racing world with a powerful, late-running surge to win the Kentucky Derby. His connections subsequently chose to bypass the Preakness, focusing on a preparation tailored for Belmont glory—a strategy that has proven successful for many past champions.
He must contend with the morning-line favorite, Journalism (8-5), who enters the Belmont off a gritty, awe-inspiring victory in the Preakness Stakes after finishing a game second in the Derby.
The rubber match between these two colts is the main event, but formidable challenges are expected from Grade 2 Wood Memorial winner Rodriguez and Kentucky Derby third-place finisher Baeza.
The Field
1. Hill Road (10-1) This colt, from the powerful barn of trainer Chad Brown, enters the Belmont following a victory in the Grade 3 Peter Pan Stakes, the traditional local prep for this event. The positive from that win was his sustained run that saw him pass rivals who were not facing an overly demanding pace.
However, he must improve his career-best 94 Beyer Speed Figure to contend with the division leaders. While Brown has yet to win a Belmont, his horses are always competitive, and he came close with Gronkowski in 2018.
2. Sovereignty (2-1) The Kentucky Derby winner arrives as a fresh and formidable horse at Saratoga. Trainer Bill Mott, who won this race in 2010 with Drosselmeyer, intentionally skipped the Preakness to aim for this prize, and by all accounts, the horse is training brilliantly.
His explosive closing kick in the Derby was the stuff of legends, and the 1 1/4-mile distance is no issue for him. He is poised for another massive effort and will be tough to deny if he gets a fair pace to target.
3. Rodriguez (6-1) Trained by three-time Belmont winner Bob Baffert, this colt is the race’s primary speed threat. He earned his way here with a front-running victory in the Grade 2 Wood Memorial, posting a strong 101 Beyer figure.
A quarter crack forced him to miss the Derby and Preakness, but his recent workouts suggest he is back in top form. His biggest questions are whether he genuinely wants to go this far and can withstand the pressure from other tactically astute runners.
4. Uncaged (30-1) One of two entrants for four-time Belmont-winning trainer Todd Pletcher, this colt appears to be a step below the leading contenders. He was soundly defeated in the Peter Pan Stakes by Hill Road, and his speed figures are well below par for this level.
Interestingly, his only two career wins came on muddy tracks, suggesting his connections might be hoping for an off-track, which could potentially move him up.
5. Crudo (15-1) A lightly raced but promising colt, he is also conditioned by Todd Pletcher. He enters off two straight wins, including a stakes victory at Pimlico, but is taking a significant jump in class and distance. His sire is Triple Crown winner Justify, which provides optimism for his stamina.
Still, he has yet to post a speed figure that suggests he can compete with the elite members of this field and would need a massive leap forward.
6. Baeza (4-1) This colt’s third-place finish in the Kentucky Derby was terrific, as he overcame a wide post and early trouble to finish with a powerful closing kick. His pedigree is rich with stamina, making him well-suited for the Belmont distance.
Trainer John Shirreffs is known for shipping horses only when he believes they have a legitimate chance to win, so his presence from California is a major vote of confidence. His Beyers are fast enough to win, and he possesses enough tactical speed to stay in touch with the pace.
7. Journalism (8-5) The Preakness winner showed incredible heart in that victory, bulling his way through a tight spot to run down the leader in the final strides. That triumph followed a valiant runner-up effort in the Kentucky Derby.
He is a tough, classy horse, but he now competes in his third classic in five weeks, a grueling campaign that can take its toll. While he has the talent, the question is whether the demanding schedule will leave him vulnerable to fresher rivals in the stretch.
8. Heart of Honor (GB) (30-1) After a campaign in Dubai, this British-bred colt made his U.S. debut in the Preakness, where he was fractious before the race and finished a distant fifth. He now faces an even tougher task against the Kentucky Derby winner and third-place finisher, who were absent at Pimlico.
He appears outmatched from a speed-figure perspective and would need a dramatic reversal of form to be a factor.
Win, Place, Show, Wildcard, and Longshot
Win: (2) Sovereignty (2-1) – The Kentucky Derby champion is fresh, has been pointed specifically for this race by a Hall of Fame trainer, and has already proven he can dominate a top-level field at this distance. His closing kick can be devastating, and he is the most likely winner.
Place: (6) Baeza (4-1) – He was closing fastest of all in the Kentucky Derby despite a troubled trip and is bred to excel at this distance. With a cleaner journey, he is a major threat to win it all and should, at worst, be right there for the runner-up spot.
Show: (7) Journalism (8-5) – His courage is undeniable, but the Triple Crown trail is demanding. Competing in three strenuous races in five weeks may catch up to him in the final furlong against rested, elite rivals. He’s too classy to discount but may have to settle for a minor award.
Wildcard: (3) Rodriguez (6-1) – He is the X-factor in the race. If jockey Mike Smith can nurse him through moderate early fractions on an uncontested lead, his high-quality speed could make him very difficult to catch. His performance will dictate the entire pace scenario of the race.
Longshot: (1) Hill Road (10-1) – He comes from a top barn and won the key local prep race. While his speed figures need to improve, his sustained running style is suited for the long Saratoga stretch. At double-digit odds, he offers the best value among the longer-priced horses.
Be the first to comment