The Grade 1, $1,000,000 Stephen Foster Stakes at Churchill Downs on Saturday, June 28, is set to be a sensational showdown, featuring a thrilling renewal of rivalries on the main track. The race, carded for four-year-olds and upward, is run at a distance of 1 1/8 miles.
The formidable Sierra Leone, a multiple Grade 1 winner, is the morning-line favorite at 5-2, and will be challenged by proven Grade 1 winners First Mission and Kentucky Derby winner Mystik Dan, who both aim to cement their status in the handicap division.
Another Grade 1 winner, uber-talented Mindframe, coming off an incredible win last time out in the Churchill Downs Stakes, will vie to continue his ascent in the older horses division.
The Stephen Foster, a “win and you’re in” race for the Breeders’ Cup Classic, promises a contentious battle with a talented field of six, vying for the top prize and a place in horse racing’s most prestigious year-end event. Post time for the race is 6:03 PM ET.
Spot On The Field
1) First Mission (4/1) is a consistent performer with a record of 6 wins and 2 second-place finishes from 12 starts. He is trained by Brad Cox, who has a 20% win rate in 2025. His recent form is excellent, with a win in the Grade 2 Oaklawn Handicap on April 19 and a victory in the Grade 1 Stephen Foster a year ago on June 29, 2024. He is a proven winner at this distance and at this track. He tends to stalk the pace, which should suit him well in this race. His main drawback could be facing tough, new challengers after his last win.
2) Mindframe (7/2) is a lightly raced but highly talented colt with 4 wins and 2 second-place finishes in 6 starts. He has shown an ability to win on the lead and from off the pace. He is trained by Todd Pletcher, who has a 20% win rate in 2025. He finished second to Dornoch in both the Grade 1 Haskell and Grade 1 Belmont Stakes in 2024. He just won the Grade 1 CD on May 3, 2025, a significant step up in class that he passed. He is a major contender who needs to prove he can compete consistently against the best of the best in the handicap division.
3) Skippylongstocking (6/1) is a seasoned veteran with 11 wins from 32 starts and over $3.6 million in earnings. He has been a dominant force in his recent starts, with wins in the Grade 2 Gold Cup at Santa Anita and the Grade 3 Challenger Stakes at Tampa Bay Downs. He has a history of vying for the lead and has been successful doing so. He has run in the Stephen Foster before, finishing third a year ago to First Mission. His consistent high-level performances and front-running style make him a threat in this race, but he has to prove he can win at this level.
4) Sierra Leone (5/2) is the morning-line favorite with a record of 4 wins and 3 second-place finishes in 10 starts. He finished second by a nose in both the Kentucky Derby and the Belmont Stakes in 2024. He has a powerful late-running style, with a TimeformUS Late Pace rating of 130, which is extremely high. He recently won the Grade 1 Blue Grass Stakes on April 6, 2024, at Keeneland. The main question for him is if he can overcome his tendency to get far behind the pace and still have enough left in the stretch to win.
5) Mystik Dan (3/1) is a classic winner, having won the Kentucky Derby on May 4, 2024, by a nose. He has a record of 4 wins and 3 second-place finishes from 13 starts. He has a versatile running style and has won from on and off the pace. He recently won the Grade 3 Blame Stakes on May 31, 2025, at Churchill Downs. He is a top contender, and his strong finishes make him a dangerous horse in the stretch. He is a proven champion who can beat the best, but he will need to bring his A-game against a top-class field.
6) Hit Show (9/2) is a seasoned campaigner with 9 wins from 18 starts and over $8.4 million in earnings. He recently won the Grade 3 Louisiana Stakes on January 18, 2025. He is a versatile horse, having won from stalking the pace to running on the lead. He has finished in the money in some of the most prestigious races in the country, including a fifth-place finish in the 2023 Kentucky Derby. He seems to be in good form with a Grade 3 win, but he will need to step up his game to win at the Grade 1 level.
7) Ashcroft (30/1) is the longest shot on the board. He has 6 wins from 12 starts but has not won a graded stakes race. He finished eighth in the Grade 3 R. Knick’s Go Stakes on May 3, 2025. He is a front-runner, but there are others in the field who will contest the lead, making it difficult for him to get an uncontested lead. He needs to improve his Beyer numbers and will have a very tough task against a very classy field.
Spot On Picks
Win: (4) Sierra Leone (5/2) – His devastating late kick and powerful TimeformUS Late Pace rating make him a very tough opponent to beat. He just needs to not fall too far behind to be able to make his winning move in the stretch.
Place: (1) First Mission (4/1) – The defending champion of this race has shown to be a top performer at this distance and on this track. He should be in a good stalking position, waiting to strike at the top of the stretch.
Show: (5) Mystik Dan (3/1) – The Kentucky Derby winner is a proven champion. He is versatile and can adapt to the pace of the race. He should be right there at the end, contending for a top spot.
Wildcard: (2) Mindframe (7/2) – He is a talented horse who has recently won a Grade 1. He has a ton of potential, and if he can avoid getting boxed in and make a smooth move, he can beat them all.
Longshot: (7) Ashcroft (30/1) – The longest shot in the field has shown to be a front-runner. If he can get a lonely lead, which is unlikely, and no one challenges him early, he can last to pick up the pieces for a share of the purse.
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