Zany and Percy’s Bar, a pair of talented three-year-old fillies who have both tasted success at the highest levels of competition, will lead a compact but classy field into the Grade 1 Ashland Stakes this Friday at Keeneland.
This historic event often serves as a definitive proving ground for those looking to secure their place in the upper echelon of the division, and this year’s edition appears to be a clash of varying running styles and untapped potential.
The $750,000 headliner lured a field of seven and is carded at 1 1/16 miles on the dirt. As a primary stepping stone toward the spring’s biggest prizes, the Ashland remains one of the most prestigious dates on the Kentucky racing calendar, consistently producing champions who go on to define their generation.
Spot On The Field
1) Nycon (Scratched).
2) Percy’s Bar (7/2) technically crossed the wire first in a Grade 1 at this exact track and distance last fall, only to be disqualified and placed second. She followed that with a solid third-place effort in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies, proving her class remains legitimate regardless of the official result. She has shown she can win from the lead or by rallying late, and while she returns from a layoff, her best speed figures suggest she is the primary threat to the favorite if she is ready to roll.
3) Zany (4/5) enters this contest with a perfect three-for-three record, having won her races by a combined margin of nearly 18 lengths. She was last seen romping in the Suncoast Stakes in February, an easy prep that should have her primed for a massive effort in her second start of the year. She is remarkably versatile, having won both on the lead and from off the pace, and her Grade 2 Demoiselle victory at nine furlongs confirms that the distance of the Ashland will be no issue at all.
4) French Friction (9/2) steps up into stakes company for the first time after a dominant allowance score at Oaklawn Park, where she posted the highest last-race speed figure in this field. She has handled both wet and fast tracks with ease and possesses a pedigree that suggests she will thrive as she stretches out beyond a sprint for the first time. She is naturally quick and will likely be part of the early pace, making her a dangerous contender if she can carry that speed over two turns.
5) Omaha Bay (12/1) is another speed-oriented filly who has done her best running right on the front end in her two career starts. She won her debut in impressive fashion but struggled to keep pace when stepping up to Grade 2 company last time out, eventually fading to fourth. She will likely be sent hard from the gate to try and secure the lead, but with other speed present, she faces a tall task trying to hold off the more seasoned closers in the final furlong.
6) Hollybygolly (20/1) makes her dirt debut here after spending the early part of her career on turf and synthetic surfaces. She has shown some talent, including a victory against allowance company at Turfway Park last month, but her speed figures have generally lagged behind the leaders in this group. While her recent dirt workouts at Keeneland have been encouraging, she would need to find a completely different gear to make a serious impact against Grade 1 competition.
7) Star Actress (6/1) comes into the Ashland off a determined maiden victory at Gulfstream Park, where she rated off a slow pace and finished strongly. Her trainer has a strong record in graded stakes, and while this is a significant step up in class, she has shown the kind of professional demeanor that suggests she belongs. She will likely sit in a mid-pack trip and hope for a fast pace to develop up front, giving her a chance to pick up the pieces late.
Spot On Picks
Win: (3) Zany (4/5) – She has been the most dominant force in the division so far and possesses the tactical speed to sit wherever the jockey wants.
Place: (2) Percy’s Bar (7/2) – She loves the Keeneland surface and has already proven she can compete with the best at this distance.
Show: (4) French Friction (9/2) – Her natural speed makes her a threat to stay in the mix for a long time, even if the favorites prove too much late.
Wildcard: (7) Star Actress (6/1) – If the pace becomes a meltdown between the early speed types, she is the one most likely to benefit from a late closing kick.
Longshot: (5) Omaha Bay (12/1) – She is the “catch me if you can” play; if she gets a lonely lead, she could prove much tougher than her odds suggest.
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